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Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts

Monday, November 21, 2011

"Who are you to make such claims?" Complaints Bloggers (I) Receive

Sometimes in posts on this blog, I want to warn people with small children about dangerous diseases and illnesses that can be prevented easily. But sometimes people will write thing like, "Who are you to make such claims?" Or like in yesterday's post, a comment like this, "You seriously are comparing the worst nuclear disaster ever, to flu shots. (sic) You are a sick individual." 


I get lots of hate mail especially when I compare the risks of everyday occurrences with a media sensationalized story like Fukushima.


Challenges. Those are comments that I often get... Along with invective and personal insults. I try not to insult these people back. I like to think that the big electrode, God, Buddha, Zig Zag, what-have-you, in the sky put these people on the earth to teach me patience and how to be a better person.


Kindness to people works wonders!


My third daughter Wendy.  Some say she is handicapped. 
I say she is "just perfect!"


The most recent attacks I have received are because I have warned parents about serious problems, diseases and illnesses that can affect their children and I use Fukushima sensationalism as a comparison. People will grossly overreact to Fukushima, over a hundred miles away, but when serious causes of diseases (that get little media attention) are right under their noses, they are oblivious. 


To pat myself on the back (once again) as a mass media professional for over thirty years, I know what kind of BS goes on with news reporting and sensationalism as I have seen it from the inside. And, with four kids, I hope I know a bit about raising children. In fact, because of 4 kids, and one of them defeating a rare, deadly childhood disease - yet remaining handicapped for the rest of her life - I know more than most parents would ever want to know about raising kids and diseases like childhood cancer.


Many times I have pointed out that we cannot believe what we hear on the TV news and even so-called alternative media. The sensationalism sells advertising. That's the point and, in this day and age, it astounds me that most people today say they know that, but when it comes to something like Swine Flu or Fukushima, they seem to forget it. I am beginning to think that this selective response is due to some childhood phobias. Please refer to: Japan Nuclear Disaster Update & Strong Criticism of Western Media Sensationalism:

Actually, it astounds me that people do accept what what the media says as gospel truth. Don't forget that this is the very same media that told us 3 years ago that Swine Flu was going to kill more than 50 million people worldwide. This was the same media that told us that the USA had to invade Iraq because of Saddam's nooklar weapons. This was the same media that told us that SARS also was a killer virus that was going to wipe out entire populations. This was the same media that told us that Bird Flu was going to do the same.

As of today, worldwide 
 deaths from Swine Flu: 82. No nuclear weapons for Saddam (if he had any, do you really think we would have invaded Iraq?). Worldwide deaths from SARS: 100. Worldwide deaths from Bird Flu
: 80. Don't even get me started on Man Made Global Warming!

Fact of the matter is that this is the same media who constantly exaggerates stories in order to sell advertising space to an extremely gullible public. When will people ever learn? If history is any example then the answer is: Never. They'll never learn.
Just wait a year or three for the next killer disease and we can start all over again.  

So, I write posts like the above pointing out problems with the media. Then I write articles alerting people to serious cancer and disease causing problems that, while not trendy, nor spectacularly newsworthy, are actually much more dangerous to our children than Fukushima will ever be. For one example of that, please refer to: 

Benzene in Cars! This Will Kill More People Than Fukushima Will 

Do not turn on A/C immediately as soon as you enter the car! Please open the windows after you enter your car and do not turn on the air-conditioning immediately.


According to research done, the car dashboard, sofa, air freshener emits Benzene, a cancer causing toxin (carcinogen - take note of the heated plastic smell in your car). In addition to causing cancer, it poisons your bones, causes anemia, and reduces white blood cells. Prolonged exposure will cause Leukemia, increasing the risk of cancer. may also cause miscarriage.

Acceptable Benzene levels indoors is 50 mg per sq. ft.. A car parked with windows closed will contain 400 - 800 mg of Benzene. If parked outdoors, under the sun, at temperature above 60 degrees F (15.5 C), the Benzene level goes up to 2000 - 4000 mg, 40 times the acceptable level... And the people inside the car will inevitably inhale an excess amount of the toxins.

It is recommended that you open the windows and doors to give time for the interior to air out before you enter. Benzene is a toxin that affects your kidney and liver, and it is very difficult for your body to expel this toxic stuff.


Or even my most recent post: 

Massive Cover-up! Worse Than Fukushima? Japan (and the World Over) Danger Levels at More Than 250 X Safe Limit!


Here are the facts: 300 death claims from flu vaccine. And Flu vaccines and neurological problems (caused Guillian Barre Syndrome in over 500 people). These two links show over 800 deaths and nerve damage vaccine related illnesses from, you guessed it, flu shots in one year alone! So far deaths or illness from Fukushima: Zero


Because of these posts, though, I will get attacked by people who ask me what right or authority I have to mention anything about diseases like this or children's cancer. Perhaps I am confused, but here is where I think my authority lies. My authority lies in my dearest third daughter whom I love deeply and will spend the rest of my life caring for and trying to help other parents (and their children) to prevent a similar struggle. 


So let me give my qualifications. First, my darling daughter, Wendy. One day, when she was age 1 1/2, she suddenly could not walk anymore. It was very strange. One day she was running around, the next day she couldn't stand. Soon after, she was diagnosed with 4th stage of a rare form of children's cancer called Rhabdomysarcoma. The doctors said it was incurable and her diagnosis was poor. She, like all children diagnosed with this horrible disease, was only expected to live for 2 ~ 6 months. 


As some may know, 4th stage cancer is the worst and final stages. The doctors at Setagaya Children's Hospital told me that she had virtually no chance. But I fought back. We fought back. 


I fired those doctors and hired the #1 expert in Japan (and top doctor in the world for this type of cancer - Dr. Mugishima at Nichidai hospital in Itabashi Tokyo) to handle my daughter. I fired the first group of doctors because they said, "Virtually zero chance." Dr. Mugishima gave us a 7% chance. Good enough. Better than zero. If your doctor doesn't think you have a chance, then that's not good. Fire them.


As part of the new doctor's regime, my then wife had to move into the hospital with my daughter 24/7 and that left me at home with two small girls to care for by myself and to try to hold down a job too! In spite of that, I took care of those two girls, and visited my daughter and wife in the hospital everyday religiously for over two years. 


The hospital cost me an impossible amount to pay. It was well over $10,000 a month every month for those 2 years (insurance doesn't pay for private hospitals and choices) and yet I paid it out of my pocket with no loans (Heck, I was a foreigner in Japan, my wife was in the hospital with my daughter, I had no assets, who's going to give me a loan? No one.) Yet, even with all this, I held down my job, paid for everything, cooked and cleaned and we came out victorious in a war with a deadly disease. 


When my daughters cancer was declared in full remission she was released from the hospital with one big caveat: Because of the treatment, her immune system was so damaged that she was not allowed to live with other children for six years because she would be catching all sorts of illness (from her sisters who played with other children at school who caught colds all the time). And those illnesses might kill her. 


After two years apart in the hospital and then another six years apart (at least) for the future, and me with a 11-year-old and a 9-year-old from a previous marriage, my wife and I decided it was best to get a divorce. In over 80% of all cases where a child in Japan gets cancer in Japan, the parents wind up in divorce. The pressure and stress are too great.


My daughter is now a high school student and looking forward to college. She is wheelchair bound for life but one of the happiest and most positive people you could ever hope to meet. I wish my other daughters were so happy!


Japan has a population of about 130 million people. Only about two or three children per year get this rare form of cancer. Nearly all of them do not survive. My daughter was only the second one in history of Japan, since it started cancer study with Germany and the USA in 1971, to do so.


These are my qualifications. I don't think they are so bad. 


UPDATE: People need to get their priorities straight. For example, did you know that: In the U.S., the odds of being killed by conventional medicine are almost 20 times (2,000%) greater than being killed in an automobile accident and almost 30 times (3,000%) greater than being killed by a gun. - From Confessions of a Drug Industry Insider.


*If any parents have such a challenge to deal with, please write to me and perhaps I can give some advice that may be helpful... I will try.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Betrayal: Denial or Acceptance & Apology - The Dilemma for Flyjin

Here's at typical conversation with a foreigner who tried to convince me - and anyone who will listen - that even though he ran away during the early days of the Fukushima incident, that he believes he did not shirk his duties when he ran away from Tokyo (as if it matters what I think). I think the assertion is absolutely absurd. I also can't believe that this person really thinks that way either.
STEVIE WONDER - HIGHER GROUND
I believe that this kind of justification and immature rationalization is pretty common. It is not the sign of good mental health and well-being and shows a person being unable to rectify their actions with the image of who & what they perceive themselves to be. 


The bottom line is that it is denial.
I won't name this person. Why should I? Since he is far from admitting his error, I will spare him public embarrassment. I gather that, from his mail - on a Sunday morning no less - that he is under pressure for his recent foolishness and might lose his job. Perhaps he should.
I would have fired him.  
This person actually has something like this on his online bio (I'm paraphrasing to protect his identity): "I work with corporate clients in preparing executive teams and training them on how to handle crisis preparation and the implementation of that preparation." 
What a laugh. He claims that he trains people for crisis management yet, he panicked and left? Now he is trying to spin and do damage control? 


This is completely a case of "Don't do what I do, do what I say."


Loser.
I imagine that these sorts of people believe themselves to be responsible, logical adults. Their recent actions destroy that belief in their hearts - and they know it -  and they are desperately trying to convince everyone - in an effort to convince themselves - that it's all okay. They won't soon recover.
 Just like a drug addict must first admit that they have a problem before they can recover - these people will probably have to admit that they screwed up or panicked as they feared for their lives.
Here's what people must understand: You are all selfish assholes. I am a selfish asshole. We are all selfish assholes. Humans are selfish assholes. We do nothing in the spirit of altruism. Altruism does not exist. Nearly all compassionate and kind acts are related to self-interest. 
Realize that and accept it. Get off your cloud.
As I posted in Wakeup! Why I Don't Worry and You Shouldn't Either when describing the book "Awareness":
"They (most people) never understand the loveliness and the beauty of this thing we call the human existence. You know, all the mystics - Catholic, Christian, non-Christian, no matter what their theology, no matter what their religion - are unanimous on one thing: that all is well, all is well. Though everything is a mess, all is well. Strange paradox to be sure. But, tragically, most people never get to see that all is well because they are asleep. They are having a nightmare."
The book goes on to discuss the feelings of fear, hate, distrust, anger, love and addiction. It goes on to ask that the reader, whenever they are feeling these emotions, do an exercise and try to view themselves - and their life - from outside of their own bodies as if they were watching a movie.

When you watch a movie and see two people fighting and getting angry or emotional, you do not get so riled up and involved. It is, after all, just a movie. As a movie, then, you can observe with a detachment that is very beneficial to your spirit. But, when you do not detach, when you are one of the people who is doing the fighting, then you become attached and engulfed and emotions such as anger, hate and fear cloud your thinking.

I then made the point that staying calm and trying to view events from a different perspective is the first step towards calm and wise decision making:

Of course we must make calm and logical decisions on how to protect ourselves and make sure our loved ones are safe, right? Exactly! And that is the point of this essay. How can one make calm and level-headed decisions while being swallowed up by unfounded fears and panic?

The best decisions are the ones made in a cool and collected frame of mind; not when your animal and primitive fears kick in for a fight or flight response. I've always admired people who are wise, silent and calm. Think about that again, when do people make rash decisions? When they are emotional. Being in a state of agitated emotions is not conducive to making logical - nor wise - decisions.

Is there anyone who can argue this point?

You are a selfish jerk. So am I. So is everyone else. The difference? Some people are trying everyday to be mature enough (I hope I am) to admit it and are trying everyday to climb that mountain of truth to get closer to God: This guy who is trying to convince me that he did no wrong, on the other hand, is still trying to hold onto these false idols that he has identified himself with; A false idol that he has damaged or destroyed by his own actions.
You are not that respectable, responsible businessman you thought you were. When fear struck your heart, you ran like a small child.
Don't expect me to forgive you, even if I wanted to or even if I could. And why do you want me to forgive you? It doesn't matter what I think. It only matters what you think.
Your being comes from the innermost of your heart - not the act you do or the mask you wear at work everyday. 
The guy who, for some inexplicable reason, wants me to forgive me wrote:
"You know, Mike, you and I have been here about the same amount of time. I first came here in 1982 and started living here in 1987. Been here since. I my 25 years, I never left Japan during an earthquake or tsunami. But I chose to leave two days after the Fukishima quake. Sea water being dumped on overheating reactors, no transparency from TEPCO, reactive (vs. proactive) responses....I made my choice to leave for a couple weeks. What is wrong with that? I dislike grouping ALL people who left in the "panic" category. I did not panic. I used my mind and made the choice to leave. And lumping ALL journalists as sensationalist for reporting what was happening is nonsense."
I answered: 


Do you read or write Japanese? Did you get your news from NHK? Where do you get the idea that I lumped all journalists as sensationalist? That's simply not true. The problem: As an executive at your company, did you run away while expecting your Japanese staff to stay on and work? Or did you do the responsible thing and at least tell them to go home and care for their families? I suspect the former. You can try to convince me all you want of the rationality of your actions, I am not your judge. You need to convince your staff. How long have you been at your current position? 3 months? Excellent management shows leadership and risk management and assessment abilities. Did you?”
He skirted the questions and responded with: 
"This has nothing to do with one's employer, let alone one's skill set or even one's job. It is/was an individual choice based on many things including perceived safety and risk to one's health. End of story."
Once again, I gave him examples. I wrote: 
And about basic risk management and assessment in Fear, Rationality and Riskhttp://bit.ly/enk0RL  

And what a leader is in What is a Leader?http://bit.ly/dYbdrk  

If you do not fulfill these requirements, you should resign. But, maybe not... (Your company) has run away from Japan three times already... This just shows the quality of the company... And why should the company and her employees aspire to be better than their leaders? I'm not the one who needs to do the soul-searching here, my friend. ”

Again, his response fails to address the issues and blows smoke: 
"You are certainly talking a lot of risks with things you do not know, Mike. I would love to come on your radio show and have a chat....."
Now he is kissing my a*s. I wrote: 

"Please! Let's tell the truth. You made no judgements on risk. How could you have? You panicked! How many people died at Three Mile Island? Zero. On the morning of Monday the 14th, Fukushima was still listed as a level 4 crisis. Three Mile was level 5 and the Japanese system for safety level of radiation is almost 30% lower than what is used in the west. Admit it to yourself that you did zero research to get facts. Three Mile Island was evacuated for 10 miles around that plant. Fukushima was 18 miles! And we in Tokyo are upwind 150 miles from Fukushima! 

Dealing with people using facts and logic is unfair when they are dealing with emotions, I know. Finally, since he realized he couldn't get sympathy or favor from me (why does he need that anyway?) He wrote:
"Good-bye, Mike..."
What a useless wimp. Here, by the way, is a Talking Points Memo article that contradicts his timeline. I guess it's not so hard to contradict the memory of someone in a panic. Panic, as we have seen over and over, does not lead to good decisions. Just as great ideas when you are high or stoned are usually not great ideas the next day when you are sober.
Ultimately, that these people continually go on public forums and try to defend their actions is proof that they know in their hearts that they failed us, Japan and themselves. Think about it: When someone fails or betrays you; when they run away from you without talking to you first; do you accept an apology from them on a public forum, or do you wish for them to come see you and look you straight into the eyes and apologize and show some sincerity and try to make amends?
Who doesn't expect those who have transgressed to do the difficult part and apologize in person? No self-respecting person would accept anything less, either.
No mature adult would think they could get away with anything less.
Ultimately, those who ran away can turn this into a positive growing experience and admit they were wrong or they can continue with their immaturity and try to hide their shame. Which do you think is psychologically healthier? It is obvious that this guy, since he is easily over 50, will not take the spiritual growth route.


One would have hoped he had done that in High School.


Here is some excellent commentary from Linkedin from a guy named David K. who is an executive in Japan:


I am a believer that people should be evaluated for their 360 degree leadership credentials, not fired upon them. However, should they disappear when a crisis arises, I don't believe they should be in the leadership function as their actions affect not only their families, but also the families of all staff they are managing. (emphasis mine)

It is my firm belief that some of the best Japanese and ex-pat managers in all industries are here, right now, rebuilding. Some great expat managers who left during the height of the crisis have taken their families back home and already returned. As long as the latter managers communicated well with their staff, they will re-integrate well with the organization.

Many companies with a blend of Japanese and international staff who have kept their entire management structure in place throughout this ordeal will prosper heavily. Those with dismantled and non-trusting structures will suffer quite heavily as they unknowingly put the wrong people into positions of leadership. Now they know. It's not a question of how perfect a candidates credentials are when you hire him/her that matters, it's much more a question of how thorough your candidate vetting process is that determines whether your organization deserves to sink or swim when a true crisis hits. We're seeing this now and we'll see it many more times before retirement finally kicks in.
I completely agree.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Fear, Rationality and Risk

Mark Davis writes about Fear, Rationality and Risk

"The difference between fear and danger is psychological. It is like the difference between perception and reality. Perceiving that the potential worst case scenario is what should be dealt with as if it were reality leads to a tremendous waste of resources at a time when resources are scarce. Proximity, as you clearly point out in your posts Mike, to the real problem certainly alters the calculus of any risk management decision. In the end, "better safe than sorry" is a luxury that depends on your available resources, but honorable people will also weigh their responsibilities. The rich guy managers abandoning ship are wussies. Like you said: go ahead and send your families away, but consider those you serve (Japanese people) and employ.



I find it funny how people will freak out about doses of radiation that are far less than what the scanners at the airport give you; and that these same people say nothing about the scanners. So getting on a plane to avoid radiation is self-defeating. Fear and danger, indeed. - 

Many people don't consider how to respond to danger or manage risk until they are faced with the "unimaginable". Here is a primer for those not familiar with risk management basics. It is better for people to make calm, rational decisions based on facts instead of emotional, knee-jerk reactions based on fear of the unknown. In risk management jargon, there are three ways to deal with risk: avoid, assume or transfer it. Before you decide which way to go, first you need to know:

1) What could happen (threat event)?
2) If it happened, how bad could it be (threat impact)?
3) How often could it happen (threat frequency)?
4) How certain are the answers to the first three questions (recognition of uncertainty)?

Then:
1) What can be done (risk mitigation)?
2) How much will it cost (over a time period)?
3) Is it cost effective (cost-benefit analysis)?

I hope this will help ease some anxiety and/or anger by offering a rational means of dealing with danger for those consumed with an irrational fear of uncertainty. Note that we must all assume some risk in life."


Mark Davis is a husband, father and real estate analyst/investor enjoying the freedoms in Longwood, Florida.