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Showing posts with label collapse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label collapse. Show all posts

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Linkedin Japan FAIL! Stuff I've Been Thinking About: Video Mashups & I Told You So

Monday morning (Sunday for most people who read this blog). I've got a ton of things to do but here's a few things I've been thinking about... Especially how, even a few days after press release, you can see proof of how messed up a company Linkedin Japan is. Linkedin Japan is a FAIL!


First up, though, before the bashing begins, for your enjoyment, a very cool video Mash-up by Hexstatic of Nancy Sinatra's sixties smash hit "These Boots Were Made For Walking"



And speaking of getting walked on... It seems that is what's happening in Europe right now. It seems the Euro is collapsing right in front of our very eyes. Also, if you read between the lines, I'm getting the impression that we could see the bankruptcy of Greece very soon (as soon as this week or next?) Read this from Mish Shedlock, EU Finance Ministers Decide to Force Banks to Take Bigger Greek Bond Losses, Recaptialize by $140 Billion; Amount Insufficient, Few Other Details



The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.

The report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.
….
100 Million Euros is insufficient. The IMF pegged the amount between 100 million and 200 million. There is absolutely no reason to suspect the minimum is needed. Indeed, there is every reason to expect 400 million euros is insufficient.
….
I believe 400 million Euros will prove way insufficient once Portugal, then Spain, then Italy get into trouble.

Read more at Mish.

Like I said, I think we could see the bankruptcy of Greece any day now. If that happens, all bets are off and it's every man (family) for itself. I think people would be wise to draw out a good sum of money from the banks and have it at home for a few weeks just to be safe until we can see what is going to happen. I fear a "bank holiday" where it might not be possible to withdraw money (or possibly even use credit cards) from banks for a few days or even a week or two (or more?)

I always follow my own advice and I think I've done pretty well. I always mess up dates, though... But I predicted a bad situation in Autumn on 2011 and, well, here it is, autumn. Please refer to: Japan's Financial Armageddon is Coming in 60 Days?

I warned people in October of 2008 to buy gold and silver and to stock up on food (click the links for proof). At that time, gold was $724.08 an ounce (today gold is $1562.30) and silver was $9.11 an ounce (today silver stands at $47.40).



If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can. 



After the big Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, when the stores shelves were bare for a week or so (and no one knew at the time how things were going to turn out on the food and water situation) my family was fine; we had 6 months of food and water, enough for 5 people, stocked up and ready to go. When people panicked and ran away from Tokyo or when they were fighting for parking spaces at the local grocery store, or fighting for bottles of water, I only watched and shook my head in disbelief.

How can people be so gullible and foolish? How can people be so negligent and irresponsible not to be prepared?
…..
Let me give you fair warning again. Especially if you live in Japan: 

1) Store up enough water for at least 2 months (6 months preferable)
2) Fill your bathtub with water every night (if water stops you can use for cleaning)
3) Today or this week, buy at least 2 months of canned food (6 months preferable)
4) It is still not too late! Start saving money every month by buying gold and silver. If you have some savings, take 33% of it out of the bank and buy gold. Take the other 33% and keep it at  safe place at home.

It looks like we are headed for some really rough times. Better be prepared to stay out of the way.


The point I am ultimately making is that of course no one can predict the future but just because of that fact not being prepared is just plain foolish. I'm sure that there were many people in Tohoku before the earthquake and tsunami who could make the same claim that "No one could have predicted the future" so that's why many did not have food or water or the means to escape (same as many in Tokyo)... But this is not about predicting the future, this is about protecting yourselves and your family.

If you think this is about predicting the future, then use that same logic next time you buy auto, car, fire or life insurance. Don't need them, right? No one can predict the future.

While I mention Greece, another curious thing about the situation there is that it is not being mentioned on the MSM. There's lots about demonstrations in the USA, where things are peaceful for the most part, but in places like Greece, where the sh*t is about to hit the fan? Not a peep.

I had been looking at many videos on Youtube and others showing some very heavy fighting between rioters and police. I wish I would have bookmarked them. This one, though, give a good idea. This is not a friendly party. 


The most worrisome point about the situation in Greece is that the government needs the police and military to stand by them to protect them from and increasingly angry and militant civilian gathering, yet, at the same time, even the Greek police and civil servants are furious about getting pay cuts and massive slashes to their pensions. I wonder how long until they switch sides?

What would that mean for Greece and the other countries in immediate danger (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland?)

And, finally, I see the ridiculous announcement from Linkedin that they finally "launched their Japanese site". Well, that's one big strike against them; they're lying. The service was actually launched sometime before May of 2010. 

Why is that important for Linkedin? Well, when dealing or considering new companies trying to penetrate the Japanese market, please refer to How New Companies Can Succeed in Japan and How They Fail

How to correctly handle a new product or service release? (in Japan)

A new company/product/service will need to appoint somebody in Japan to handle PR for them in Japan and work with that company to make a plan. 

A necessary part of any good plan of attack would be that the representatives in Japan arrange meetings with major media at least 1 - 2 weeks before Japanese release day, as pre-press release. This is critical.

If this sort of ground-work is not fully prepared by the company and their reps in Japan, I strongly suggest that the company postpone the release of the product/service (and fire their  representatives and hire a competent company) and then get properly prepared. If this sort of pre-press release is done correctly, the Japanese media will then follow-up and prepare and study the circumstances of the product/service and company so that they may be able to publish and provide better information for the Japanese audience (don't forget that the Japanese media are competing with each other, too, to provide up-to-date concise information, so this has to be done. No short-cuts here). This is critical for the success of any new company in Japan.  

Even after years of repeated failures by various companies, to this very day, foreign companies come to Japan and repeat the mistakes Pepsi Cola and Seven-Up made decades ago. Some recent examples are Linkedin; E-Bay Japan, Google.jp, and a few others. (I strongly suspect Sugarsync is about to make the same mistake too!)

Take, for example, Linked-in. Linked-in came out with a Japanese version quite a while back but no one here in Japan uses it because no one knows about it; they had no local representation; no pre-press release information. 

Kind of shocking, when you think about it; a supposedly forward thinking company coming to Japan and making such an amateurish mistake. 

Well, Linkedin made that mistake. I also am quite familiar with this as I wrote a letter to Linkedin twice in early 2010 offering them a partnership with some companies that suggested tying up with Sony and placing the Linkedin software with all new Vaio computers sold. I sent them the letter twice. Twice, no response. Chuckle. Now, they've realized almost 1.5 years later that no one uses their Japanese language product (and probably won't). They blew a golden opportunity to tie up with one of the biggest companies in Japan... Now, what are they going to do?

You don't penetrate the Japanese market on the cheap and you usually have only one chance to get it right.

Let me make a prediction that I will stand by completely: Linkedin Japan will be a flop and failure along the lines of E-Bay in Japan.

Well, it's the start of another week. Keep positive. Write down your goals and smile.

The whole world loves happy people.

Sunday, May 29, 2011

What a Difference a Day (25 Years) Makes

If Japan fails to end industrial policy, its postwar developmentalism may be judged a failure.
--Yasusuke Murakami, 1996

Maria Grever - Cuando Vuelva A Tu Lado
You might recognize the melody. It is "What a Difference a Day Makes." 
This song was written by a Mexican composer named Maria Grever 
and it was originally in Spanish!

"How could this have happened?" Japan, the nation that just 25 ~ 30-years ago was predicted by many to dominate the world spent most of the 1990's and the 2000's just struggling to stay afloat. In fact, the only reason why Japan did stay afloat was massive government spending on useless public works projects and the like.

Today, Japan's debt stands at 225% of GDP. The cupboards are laid bare and with the continuing troubles all around the world with rising food and oil prices, not to mention the recent disaster in Japan do not bode well. Things are headed for a clash this year, I predict.


Mike Whitney says:


....(USA) unemployment is on the rise (Initial claims rose to 424,000 on Thursday), GDP is falling (1Q GDP revised to 1.8%), durable goods are down 3.6 percent in April, the market is topping out, business investment is flat, Europe's on the ropes, Japan is in a historic slump, China is overheating, the output gap is as wide as it was 6 quarters ago, bank balance sheets are bleeding red from falling home prices and non-performing loans, and the housing market is crashing.

Most of the rest of the article that Whitney wrote is pure Keynesian nonsense but he had the above information correct. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


I have recommended stocking up on food and water and think you should do the same.... Especially if you live in an earthquake prone country like Japan. Because if something happens, all the stores will sell out of water and most foods within a day, if that long.


The store shelves always look full because they are constantly restocked throughout the day. What's going to happen when something bad happens and the delivery trucks stop running?


Japan, in particular is in a very precarious position today. 


In 1998, Richard Katz wrote a book entitled, Japan: The System that Soured (The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle). It was one of any books at the time that speeled out what went wrong with the Japanese economic miracle. I bought the book when it first came out and still have it. I am amazed at how much this writer had predicted that has come true. 

He wrote: 

"Without sweeping structural reforms, Japan will continue to stagnate. Japan's productivity growth is so dismal these days that, even if it operated at full capacity, economists say the fastest it could grow is around 2 percent or so. That's half the 4 percent rate it averaged from 1975 to 1990. And yet; because of Japan's myriad macroeconomic problems, Japan has commonly been unable to operate at full capacity. In four out of the six years since fiscal 1992, Japan has grown less than 1 percent, and in three of those four years less than 0.5 percent. Japan grew less over the entire five-year period from mid-1992 through mid-1997 than it did in the single year of 1990. Unless there is massive budgetary stimulus, this negligible growth is expected to continue through at least 1998 and 1999 (see Figure 1.1). By the dawn of the new millennium, Japan will have spent an entire decade growing more slowly than the United States, the nation it was supposedly "on track to overtake by the year 2000."


"Nor is this a temporary slump. According to official forecasts, without reforms, even at full capacity, the fastest growth Japan could sustain between now and 2010 is only 1.8 percent a year. After 2010, says the normally optimistic MITI, the combination of poor productivity and a declining labor force means it will get worse. Japan's growth potential will plunge to only 0.8 percent a year."

It astounds me that this writer was so aptly able to predict the future growth rate of Japan.

I remember when I first read this, I thought, "Japan will recover!" Now, I am not so sure.

As the quote at the top of this post suggests, if Japan cannot reform its postwar industrial policy, it will be deemed a failure. The only way that is ever going to happen is that the political system that strangles Japan must collapse. The Good Old Boys and vested interests must go.

The only way that the people are going to rise up and demand that is the bottom is going to have to fall out. Just as a drug addict or alcoholic must hit rock bottom before he will admit his problems and seek help, this country will have to collapse under the strain of a massive debt to GDP ratio.

Japan is headed for some very tough times and some very difficult decisions... It's rainy season now in Japan and the weather is cool.... But in about six weeks, it's going to start getting very hot. And I don't think that is just the temperature of the summer days... I think things are all falling into place for some very difficult times for everyone. Not just Japan.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Time is Running Out! Buy Silver & Protect Yourself & Your Family!

(UPDATE BELOW)
I've been telling people to buy silver since 2008 when it was about $11.40 (USD) an ounce. I've been reporting on where the best place to buy precious metals is in Tokyo. Gold in Tokyo is here. Silver one ounce coins are cheaper overseas here. The best place to buy large amounts of silver in Japan (32 kg. bars) is here at Tanaka. (Do not buy gold at Tanaka! Their margin on gold is too high - they are good for large amounts of silver only!)


Anyway, once again, the price of silver is skyrocketing. Hi Yo Silver! Away!




The Financial Times reports that sales are so brisk and demand is so high in some places that rationing has begun. This massive demand can only cause the price to go up even more!


Silver jumped to a 30-year high amid record levels of investor buying that has drained mints of silver coins.


The price of the precious metal hit $31.37 a troy ounce on Thursday, up 16 per cent since mid-January and the highest since March 1980. The world’s leading mints have reported record sales of silver coins in January and some, including the Royal Canadian Mint and Austrian Mint, have had to ration sales.




“We have sold everything we can produce in silver and have demand for at least twice that volume,” said David Madge, head of bullion sales at the Royal Canadian Mint, which produces the silver Maple Leaf coin. Silver coin sales at the US Mint and the Austrian Mint also hit record levels in January.


The surge of buying has both boosted silver prices and helped push the market into “backwardation” – an unusual condition in which forward prices are lower than prices for immediate delivery. While investors are buying, miners have been selling their future silver production to lock in gains, which has depressed long-dated futures prices.

Silver has much higher to go folks. In 1979, the price of silver jumped from $6/oz to an all-time record high of $48.70/oz. Adjusted for inflation, silver today should be at about $150 USD an ounce.  

Silver price as of Feb. 17, 2011 at 19:25 NY time.

Silver at less than $50 an ounce is still a steal. And, if the Japanese Yen collapses like many people are predicting, we could see the price of silver in Japan go up like Chinese fireworks at a Hong Kong New Year's!


A good friend of mine told me the other day, "Mike, I remember when you told me two years ago or so to buy silver when it was at $13 (USD) I should have listened to you." Yep. he should have. I'm sure, though, he still isn't. 


Folks, the price of silver 18th Feb. 2010 was $15.84... Today, at this moment, it is ¥31.70. That's almost 200% in just 12 months.


What are you waiting for? 


(UPDATE)


This morning, the price of silver, 19th Feb. 2010 is currently $32.60. That's a $0.90 rise since last night.


Silver price as of Feb. 19, 2011 at 16:00 NY time.